Every call we have made
112 published calls on 67 instruments, 2022-02-14 to 2026-07-13. All 112 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 33 WIN, 32 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 8 THEME-CORRECT, 13 PARTIAL, 26 LOSS. That includes 26 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 20 calls on this record are not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so they are withheld from this page and the instrument pages rather than published with a direction and no result. They are counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Instruments with a record of their own
9 instruments have 3 or more published calls, so they carry their own page. An instrument moves off this page and onto its own the day its third call lands — nothing is curated by hand.
S&P 500 · 10 callsBitcoin (BTC) · 8 callsCrude oil · 6 callsRIVN · 5 callsAAPL · 3 callsAMD · 3 callsNasdaq · 3 callsSE · 3 callsTLT · 3 calls
Everything else — 68 calls across 58 instruments
68 published calls on these instruments, 2022-02-15 to 2026-07-13. All 68 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 20 WIN, 20 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 3 THEME-CORRECT, 12 PARTIAL, 13 LOSS. That includes 13 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 14 calls on this record are not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so they are withheld from this page rather than published with a direction and no result. They are counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
| Instrument | Date | Dir | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT AMAT (Applied Materials) | 2026-07-09 | Bearish/caution (watch-only) | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Caution/observation-only: pushed through 40-day FLD but met resistance; 'FLD above price + 40-day hit first' is not Derek's setup ('be careful'). | Yahoo daily: Jul 9 close [level]. Popped to [level] Jul 10 (the resistance flagged) then fell hard: [level] Jul 16, [level] Jul 17 (-10.0% from Jul 9), [level] Jul 20. The cautionary/avoid-long lean was validated by a ~10% drop. NOTE: explicitly observation-only, not a firm position. |
| AMAT AMAT | 2026-07-10 | Neutral | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Pushed through its 40-day FLD but met resistance right at the level | AMAT 2026-07-10 opened [level] and rallied to close [level] (day high [level]) — it did push up through the level, then stalled as described: faded to [level] (07-17) and a [level] range, closing [level] on 07-23 (~-7% from the 07-10 high). The 'met resistance / capped and faded' read held. |
| AMWL AMWL (Amwell) | 2026-07-13 | Bullish/observation | WIN | Nice breakout on the day; watch for a run over [level] (move already in progress) | AMWL broke above [level] on the call day (07-13 close [level]) and held above [level] for the entire window, running to a high of [level] on 07-17 (+20% vs the call close) and closing [level] on 07-23. The 'run over [level]' watched-for outcome occurred and extended. Caveat: it was observation-only with the breakout already underway at call time, so not a clean predictive entry. |
| AMZN AMZN | 2026-06-30 | Bullish | THEME-CORRECT | Economy and AMZN culture persist, no recession | AMZN closed [level] on 6/30. It rose to [level] (7/15, +7.0%) then sold off sharply to [level] (7/23), net -1.7% from the call. The macro 'no recession' theme held (no recession began in the window), but the bullish AMZN price lean is net slightly negative and just gave back all gains. Macro theme credited; not a price win. Vague/open-ended, not aged. |
| AVGO AVGO (Broadcom) | 2022-03-04 | Down | WIN | Short trade toward [level] natural support over the next few months | AVGO [level] on 3/4/22 (Yahoo returns [level]:1-split-adjusted [level]). Declined to [level] (adj [level]) by early July 2022, reaching and slightly exceeding the [level] natural-support target well within the 'next few months' window. |
| BA BA | 2022-03-01 | Short | WIN | Will fall through the weekly lows on volume | BA [level] on 2022-03-01 with prior weekly lows [level] (2/18) and [level] (2/25). Broke below on 2022-03-07 ([level]) and kept falling to a low close [level] on 2022-04-28 (about -35%). Weekly lows broken decisively. |
| BA BA (Boeing) | 2026-07-07 | Bullish | LOSS | Crossed 40-day FLD two days in a row - a second-day play (bullish continuation) | Call 7/7, BA [level]. No bullish follow-through - declined steadily to [level] (7/21), about -11.6%, and [level] (7/23). Clean, unambiguous miss. |
| BMY BMY | 2022-03-18 | Up | PARTIAL | Peak coming — about a week of bullishness left or more before topping | BMY closed [level] on 2022-03-18, rose to [level] by 2022-03-25 (the called week of bullishness, ~+9%), then essentially plateaued and topped at [level] on 2022-04-15 before a mild pullback to [level] by late April. Near-term upside call was correct; the 'top within a week' was imprecise (real peak ~4 weeks later, only marginally higher) but the 'or more' hedge and the plateau make it roughly right. Small move, hedged call. |
| CEG CEG (Constellation Energy) | 2026-07-02 | Bearish | PARTIAL | Broke the 40-day FLD with high relative volume; target below 40-day FLD | 7/2 close [level]. Only a brief downside follow-through to [level] by 7/6 (-4.8%), then the break failed: CEG reversed and rallied back above entry to [level] by 7/23 (+5.6% over the entry). Small initial move in the called direction, then negated. |
| CF CF | 2022-02-16 | Long | WIN | Upside breakout forming on daily | Feb 16 2022 close [level]. Rose to [level] (Feb 18) and [level] (Mar 1), +10% in ~2 weeks, then continued to [level] by mid-April 2022 on the Russia-Ukraine fertilizer surge. Upside breakout and long direction confirmed. |
| COST COST (Costco) | 2026-07-09 | Bearish (breakdown) | LOSS | Bearish-scan breakdown: fell through prior day and dropped hard; EOD bottom-search trade. | Yahoo daily: Jul 9 close [level]. Price rose against the bearish tag: [level] Jul 13, [level] Jul 16 (+3.6%), [level] Jul 17 (+3.1%), [level] Jul 20. Graded to the tagged bearish direction = loss. GENUINELY AMBIGUOUS: the 'search for the bottom' framing is long-leaning, and a bottom-fish long would have been +3%; graded conservatively as the less-favorable read. |
| COST COST | 2026-07-10 | Bearish | LOSS | Fell through the prior day's level and dropped hard | COST's hard drop was actually 2026-07-09 ([level] -> [level]). On 07-10 COST opened [level] and closed [level] — GREEN on the day (only briefly undercut the prior low [level] then reversed up). It then RECOVERED: [level] (07-13), [level] (07-16), closing [level] on 07-23 — higher than the 07-10 close. The bearish 'dropped hard / more downside' read did not follow through. |
| CRM CRM | 2022-02-28 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | May make one new low; break intraday lows on volume | CRM [level] close / [level] intraday low around 2022-02-28. Price broke below in the following sessions and made new lows down to [level] close on 2022-05-23 (about -23%). Daily data confirms the downside/new-low direction; exact intraday-low break can't be verified at daily granularity, so graded direction-correct rather than a confirmed intraday scalp. |
| CRWD CRWD (CrowdStrike) | 2026-07-13 | Bullish | WIN | Break above [level] resistance implies [level] or a breakout above [level] on a market rally (explicitly not predicted) | Call-day close (07-13) [level]. The very next session, 07-14, CRWD gapped through the [level] zone and printed a high of [level], closing [level] — satisfying BOTH stated targets ([level] and a breakout above [level]). Honest caveat: it did not hold; it faded to [level] (07-15) and declined to [level] by 07-23. The conditional level-target was cleanly met the next day. |
| DELL DELL | 2026-07-08 | Bullish | PARTIAL | Bullish FLD cross-above while chips broadly struggling | DELL closed [level] on the 7/8 call date (+3.5% on the day) and followed through to [level] (7/9) and [level] (7/14), ~+5.9% — the bullish cross initially worked. It then whipsawed hard, collapsing to [level] (7/20, ~-11.6% below the call level) before bouncing to [level] (7/22, +2.3% vs call). Net modestly positive but with a deep drawdown straight through the entry. |
| ENERGY & MINING NAMES Energy & mining names (sectors) | 2026-07-13 | Bullish | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Names that crossed the FLD overnight, projection not complete; trend likely to continue, esp. breaking out in an early 40-day cycle trough | No single instrument named, so proxied via sector ETFs. Energy (XLE) rose from [level] on 07-13 to [level] on 07-23 (+5.3%), a clean bullish continuation. Metals/mining (XME) rose from [level] on 07-13 to [level] on 07-23 (+1.2%) but was choppy, dipping to [level] (~07-20, -4.3%) before recovering. Bullish direction held in both, strongest in energy; no explicit target to satisfy |
| ENERGY SECTOR Energy sector (graded via XLE proxy) | 2026-06-13 | Bearish | WIN | Energy will drop hard | XLE (energy-sector proxy) Fri Jun 12 close [level] fell steadily to [level] by Jun 18, roughly -6.6%. Energy dropped as called. |
| EURUSD EURUSD (Euro) | 2022-03-03 | Down | THEME-CORRECT | Euro plummeting; geopolitical/macro bearish commentary on the currency | EURUSD closed [level] on 3/3/2022. It drifted lower through March ([level]), fell to [level] in early April, and made a mid-May low near [level] (~5/13/2022) — roughly -8% over the following ~10 weeks. Direction (down) sustained and correct, but the quoted claim is macro/geopolitical commentary, not a discrete trade with entry/target. |
| FB FB | 2022-02-15 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Price projection to the downside ($FB has projection below) | FB closed [level] on 2022-02-15; bounced +5% to [level] on 2022-02-16 (near-term counter-move), then declined: [level] by 2022-02-18, [level] late March, [level] by 2022-06-30, [level] by late Sept 2022. The downside projection played out (net ~-40% by June, ~-60% by autumn) after an initial ~5% adverse bounce. |
| FDX FDX | 2022-03-02 | Down | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Featured on a shorts list / bearish watchlist | Close [level] on 3/2/2022. Path was choppy: dipped to [level] (3/16) and printed [level] lows (intraday 3/23 and 4/6), but rallied ABOVE entry to [level] (3/23) and [level] (4/13) before rolling over to [level] by late May. Net lower over the following ~12 weeks (roughly -10%) but no clean near-term short — price traded both above and below entry. |
| FDX FDX | 2022-03-16 | Down | WIN | Doubtful it breaks upside resistance after earnings; be prepared for a pullback on the daily | FDX reported after close 2022-03-17. It closed [level] on 2022-03-17, then gapped down to [level] on 2022-03-18 (-8.2%) and stayed in the [level] range through late March and April. It did not break resistance higher; the post-earnings daily pullback occurred exactly as called. |
| FSLR FSLR | 2022-03-02 | Long | PARTIAL | Long entry with stop below lows | Close [level] on 3/2/2022. Directional thesis ultimately correct — rallied to [level] (3/23), [level] (3/30), and a [level] high (4/20), ~+21%. BUT price first fell to a [level] close (3/14, ~-12% below entry), a lower low that a mechanical 'stop below lows' would very likely have triggered for a loss before the rally. Graded conservatively: thesis right, but the specified stop-below-lows entry was probably stopped out first. |
| GME GME | 2022-03-18 | Up | WIN | Trade continuing higher rapidly toward [level] | GME closed [level] on 2022-03-18 (pre-split) and rose rapidly to [level] by 2022-04-04 — a ~54% gain in ~2.5 weeks, into the upper end of the [level] target zone. Direction and rapid timing correct. (Target range was wide, straddling the entry; price later retraced.) |
| Gold Gold (GC=F) | 2026-06-13 | Bearish | PARTIAL | New shorts in gold to destabilize market soon | GC=F [level] on Jun 12 first RALLIED against the short to [level] (Jun 17, +3.4%) before dropping to [level] (Jun 24, -5.3% from call), then recovered to [level] by early Jul. A volatile 'destabilizing' swing did occur and net was modestly lower, but price moved against the short first and largely round-tripped — mixed. Graded conservatively. |
| GS GS | 2022-02-17 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Will hit the [level] support area very soon | On 2022-02-17 GS closed [level]. It fell ~11% to a low of [level] on 2022-03-17 — a month later, not 'very soon,' and ~7% above the [level] target. Direction (down) correct but the specific [level] level and the near-term timing were both missed. |
| HOLX HOLX | 2022-02-28 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Leg down to new lows on a break below [level] | HOLX closed [level] on 2022-02-28. It broke below [level] within days (closes [level] on 3/08, [level] on 3/11, [level] low 3/15) and eventually made new lows, bottoming at [level] on 2022-06-16. Direction was correct but follow-through was shallow and choppy (~6% below trigger over ~3.5 months, no clean swing-down). |
| HOOD HOOD | 2026-07-03 | Bullish | LOSS | Broke through FLD and held; solid second-day long entry | HOOD last closed [level] on 2026-07-02 (entry basis). It popped to [level] on 7/6 (+4.3%) then rolled over and fell substantially: [level] (7/16), [level] (7/20), [level] (7/23) — net about -9% from the entry level. The long entry showed a brief gain then failed; graded LOSS. |
| IFF IFF | 2022-02-28 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Possible move to the lows if it doesn't stall | IFF [level] on 2022-02-28. Declined steadily to a low close [level] on 2022-06-17 (about -10%), moving toward its lows as described. Modest but correctly directioned move down. |
| INTU INTU | 2022-02-15 | Short | WIN | Severe weakness in long-term cycles | Feb 15 close [level]. Declined to [level] (Feb 24), [level] (Mar 1), and bottomed [level] by mid-2022 (~29% drop). Multi-timeframe/long-term weakness confirmed. |
| JPM / AXP JPM / AXP | 2026-07-09 | Bullish/observation | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Yesterday's FLD breakdown was a seller trap (reversed higher); strong financials = market tell. | Yahoo chart API (JPM daily closes): JPM dipped to [level] on Jul 8, then reversed up to [level] on Jul 9 — matching the 'fell through, reversed higher trap' observation — and continued to [level] by Jul 23 (+3.7% off the Jul 9 close). Direction supported over the following two weeks, but the call has no stated entry/target/timeframe and is tagged observation-only, so it is not a clean scorable trade. AXP not separately verified. |
| KMX KMX (CarMax) | 2026-07-13 | Bearish/observation | LOSS | Good chart formation but very late in the 80-day cycle; possible drop despite the setup (hedged 'maybe') | The bearish lean was wrong. KMX rose from [level] on 07-13 to [level] on 07-23 (+4.6%), printing a high of [level] (~07-16). It did not drop over the window. Graded LOSS on the stated bearish bias per conservative rule, though the call was hedged ('maybe') and observation-only. |
| KSS KSS (Kohl's) | 2026-07-07 | Bearish | LOSS | Confirmed a retailer short | Call 7/7, KSS [level]. Dipped to [level] (7/8, -5.2% - brief favorable move) then reversed hard to [level] (7/22, +14% vs entry) and [level] (7/23). Short hit a quick paper gain then failed decisively higher. Graded conservatively as a loss; whipsaw makes it a messy example. |
| LMT LMT | 2022-02-28 | Neutral | PARTIAL | [level] support critical to hold for a temporary pullback | LMT closed [level] on 2022-03-01 (held [level] on a closing basis), dipped intraday to [level] on 3/07-3/10 (briefly breached [level]), then rallied to [level] by late March and higher through 2022 (defense bid on the Ukraine war). The 'temporary pullback / stay-over-[level]' thesis broadly played out, but [level] was breached intraday. Vague support observation, not a clean directional call. |
| MNST MNST | 2022-02-16 | Long | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Trend change likely on cross of 20-day FLD; upside to weekly midpoint | On 2022-02-16 MNST closed [level]. It first fell ~13% to a low of [level] on 2022-02-28, then reversed higher to a peak of [level] on 2022-04-29 (~+8% from the call level, ~+24% off the late-Feb low). The upside trend change did materialize, but only after a notable drawdown; the setup was framed conditionally ('watching for cross'). |
| MSTR MSTR | 2026-07-07 | Bullish | PARTIAL | Ran into 20-day FLD and had a great day off it (bullish bounce expected) | Call 7/7, MSTR [level]. First fell to [level] (7/13, -5.4% - a short-term bounce trade would have been under water) before rallying to [level] (7/21, +4.7% vs entry), then back to [level] (7/23); net -3.5%. Mixed: initial follow-through failed, entry only exceeded mid-window before fading. Graded conservatively. |
| NOW NOW (ServiceNow) | 2022-03-08 | Down | WIN | Downside trade; [level] is the first stop | NOW [level] on 3/8/22 (Yahoo 'NOW' chart returns a consistently ~1/5-scaled series but meta confirms ServiceNow, Inc.). Price fell ~26% from entry, its low breaking below the [level] first-stop target (approx-equivalent low [level]) by late May 2022 — target reached. Caveat: after entry it first rallied ~+6% before the decline, so a short saw an adverse move first. |
| NVDA NVDA | 2026-06-30 | Bearish | LOSS | 80-day cycle trough failed; a slowdown being monitored | NVDA closed [level] on 6/30. It dipped only to [level] (7/2, -2.6%) then RALLIED to [level] (7/15, +6.2%) — a new local high above the mid-June level — and sits at [level] (7/23, +4.8% from the call). The bearish 'slowdown/failed trough' lean did not play out over the window; price moved higher. Logged as a loss. |
| PENN PENN | 2022-03-02 | Short | WIN | Short position recommended | Close [level] on 3/2/2022 (that day was the local high). Fell essentially uninterrupted: [level] (3/9, -11% in one week), [level] (3/23), [level] (3/30), [level] (4/27), and on to [level] by June. Down ~18% within the first month, ~27% within two months. Clean, immediate downside — thesis confirmed. |
| PFE PFE (Pfizer) | 2022-03-02 | Up | WIN | Destined for [level] | PFE closed [level] on 3/2/2022, rose through [level] by mid-March (high [level]), and peaked [level] on 3/29/2022. The [level] target was reached within ~2 weeks and exceeded — clean, defensible win. |
| PLAN PLAN (Anaplan) | 2022-02-28 | Short | PARTIAL | Move to lower levels [level] or [level] on a break of [level] | PLAN ([level] area late Feb) broke below [level] and fell to roughly [level] by mid-March 2022 — Thoma Bravo's [level]/share buyout (announced 2022-03-20) was a ~46% premium to the 5-day VWAP ending 2022-03-18, implying PLAN traded [level] pre-deal. First target ([level]) reached; deeper [level] not confirmed. The trade was then blown up by an unforecastable M&A gap UP to [level]. No independent daily data available (delisted); reference is the acquisition terms. |
| PLD PLD (Prologis) | 2026-07-08 | Bullish | PARTIAL | Traded higher on relative volume | Same-day claim is not cleanly supported: PLD closed [level] on 7/8, DOWN ~1.8% from [level] (7/7). Over the following 2 weeks it rose to [level] (7/16) then eased to [level] (7/22), +2.6% vs the call level — net direction up, but the 'traded higher today' assertion conflicts with the 7/8 down close. Graded conservatively. |
| PLTR PLTR | 2026-07-03 | Bullish | PARTIAL | On bull scan 2nd day, caught first 20-day cycle after 80-day low; target [level] | PLTR last closed [level] on 2026-07-02. It rose in the called direction to a peak close of [level] on 7/20 (+4.3%), coming within ~0.1% of the [level] target but not tagging it on a closing basis, then reversed hard to [level] (7/22) and [level] (7/23) — below the entry level. Direction right and near-miss on target, but target unmet on close and the move fully reversed. |
| PYPL PYPL | 2022-02-15 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Afternoon trading to extend recent losses | Feb 15 closed down at [level] (from [level]), extending the post-earnings slide, and kept falling to [level] (Feb 24) and [level] (Feb 28). Direction correct; the intraday afternoon-timing precision is not independently verifiable at daily resolution. |
| PYPL PYPL | 2022-02-16 | Long | LOSS | Excess low in place; can bounce out of a new 80-day nest | On 2022-02-16 PYPL closed [level]. There was only a brief bounce to [level] (~+8%) by 2022-03-24, after which the stock collapsed to a low of [level] on 2022-04-24 (~-22% from the call). The 'excess low in place' bottom-call was wrong — a materially lower low followed. Logged as a loss. |
| RIOT RIOT | 2026-07-03 | Bearish | WIN | Broke 40-day FLD, triggering a short entry in line with sector weakness | Short reference from [level] (7/3 close). RIOT fell steadily to [level] close / [level] low by 7/20 — roughly -24% to -27% — rewarding the short across the near-term (1-2.5 week) window. It then rebounded sharply to [level] by 7/23, a near-full round-trip to entry, so the win only holds if the short was covered near the lows. |
| SBUX SBUX | 2022-03-16 | Down | THEME-CORRECT | Major resistance at the highs; [level] (40-day FLD) is a historical stopping point — expect rejection/consolidation | SBUX closed [level] on 2022-03-16, rallied to [level] on 2022-03-30 (a marginal [level] overshoot of the [level] zone), then was rejected and fell through Apr-Jun to [level] by mid-July (~-18% from the high). The [level] area acted as a major resistance/stopping point and rejection followed, as called. Note the brief overshoot above [level] before the top. |
| Semiconductors (SMH / SOXX) SOXX | 2026-07-03 | Bearish | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Broke 40-day FLD, projects a larger downside target | SOXX last closed [level] on 2026-07-02. It declined to a trough close of [level] on 7/17 (-7.9%), delivering a real downside excursion, then bounced to [level] (7/23, net -3.3%). Bearish direction confirmed with a meaningful ~8% drop, but this is a medium-term call still developing at ~3 weeks, so not fully resolved. |
| Semiconductors (SMH / SOXX) Semiconductors (chips / SMH, SOXX) | 2026-07-08 | Bearish | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Chips led the weakness; below 20- and 40-day FLDs | Call 7/8, SMH [level]. Sector bounced 2 days to [level] (7/10) then sold off to a lower low of [level] (7/17, -6% vs call / -9% vs the bounce), confirming continued weakness, before recovering to [level] (7/23); net -2.5%. SOXX same shape ([level] -> [level] low 7/17 -> [level]). Downside follow-through was real but choppy (2-day bounce first, partial recovery after). |
| SHAK SHAK (Shake Shack) | 2026-07-09 | Bullish (observation) | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Bullish observation-only: cleared its 20-day FLD; volume-filter caveat (needs high RVOL vs 50-period). | Yahoo daily: Jul 9 close [level]. Rose after the signal: peaked [level] Jul 13 (+10.4%), still +3.0% at [level] Jul 17, then gave back to [level] Jul 20 (+1.2%). Direction up confirmed but faded; observation-only with no stated entry/target/timeframe, so graded conservatively rather than a clean WIN. |
| SHAK SHAK | 2026-07-10 | Bullish | PARTIAL | Cleared its 20-day FLD today | SHAK 2026-07-10 opened [level] and closed [level] (+4%), then followed through to [level] on 07-13 (+6% from the 07-10 close), before fully reversing: [level] (07-16), [level] (07-17), down to [level] on 07-23 — below the 07-10 close. A brief favorable pop, then a round-trip to net negative over the near-term window. |
| Silver XAGUSD (Silver) | 2022-03-02 | Down | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Thinking lower after a surprising afternoon rally; swing short | Silver (SI=F) [level] on 3/2/2022. It first spiked higher into the Ukraine-invasion peak ([level] around 3/8) — an adverse move for a fresh short — then declined steadily: [level] in April, [level] in May, and [level] by June, a net move of roughly -18% over the swing horizon. Direction (lower) correct after an initial adverse pop; honest disclosure of the early spike required. |
| Silver Silver ($SI / SI=F) | 2022-03-30 | Up | LOSS | Large bounce out of an 80-day trough into a 20-week peak; value builds for the next couple months (target [level]/oz into May) | SI=F closed [level] on 2022-03-30. Only a modest ~6% bounce followed, peaking [level] on 2022-04-13, then it fell steadily: [level] by 2022-05-31 and [level] by 2022-06-29. Never approached the [level] target; the multi-month value-building thesis was wrong (price fell ~13% by end of May). |
| SLB SLB | 2022-02-16 | Long | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Upside breakout probable to continue into morning | Feb 15 close [level]. Feb 16 morning is not resolvable at daily granularity; the immediate next close (Feb 17) was down at [level], but SLB firmed to [level] by Feb 22 and rose with oil into spring ([level] March, [level] June). Broad long direction played out; the specific intraday morning window is unverifiable. |
| SPCX SPCX | 2026-06-13 | Bearish | LOSS | Looks done for the week; maybe Thursday or Friday it comes back | SPCX [level] on Jun 12 ROSE the following week to a peak of [level] (Jun 16) and closed [level] (Jun 18), roughly +15% on the week - the opposite of 'done for the week.' The bearish/topping call missed. |
| SPLK SPLK (Splunk) | 2022-03-02 | Down | LOSS | Bearish toward the [level] range; resistance at [level] | SPLK closed roughly [level] on 3/2/2022, then reported a large Q4 earnings beat (EPS [level] vs -[level] est) after the 3/2 close and gapped UP ~10% on 3/3; April 2022 average close was [level]. The stock moved OPPOSITE the bearish call and did not trade down into the [level] target during the short-term window. (SPLK was acquired by Cisco and delisted in 2024, so exact daily bars are no longer on Yahoo; grade rests on the corroborated earnings-beat gap-up and April [level] average.) |
| STOR STOR | 2022-02-28 | Short | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Break of [level] triggers short setup, stop [level] | STORE Capital (STOR, later delisted after its Feb 2023 acquisition) traded [level] in late Feb 2022 and fell to a spring low near [level] in June 2022 (roughly -13%). Direction (short/down) was correct and price stayed below the [level] stop area. Only coarse (monthly) delisted data available, and the '[level] break' trigger is muddled since price was already [level] near the call, so graded direction-correct with lower confidence. |
| SYK SYK (Stryker) | 2022-03-08 | Down | WIN | Heading for the [level] area soon | SYK closed [level] on 3/8/22 and declined fairly steadily to [level] by early June 2022 (~-26%), crossing down through the [level] area in the interim (~April-May 2022). Target hit. |
| TECH SECTOR Tech sector (graded via XLK proxy) | 2026-06-13 | Bullish | WIN | Bet big in tech | XLK (tech-sector proxy) Fri Jun 12 close [level] rose to [level] (Jun 15) and [level] (Jun 18), roughly +3.6% on the week. Tech rose as called. Restate without the 'bet big' sizing language. |
| TER TER (Teradyne) | 2026-07-02 | Bearish | WIN | Down 11%, extended at the end of its cycle, tends to follow through; target below FLD at cycle end | 7/2 close [level]. Strong bearish follow-through as called: [level] (7/3), [level] (7/6), down to a [level] low / [level] close by 7/20 — roughly -33% to -39%. A partial bounce to [level] followed by 7/23. The 'tends to follow through' thesis was confirmed emphatically over the near-term. |
| TSLA TSLA | 2022-02-27 | Long | WIN | Retest 40-week FLD / consolidate this week, then continue higher | TSLA (split-adjusted) closed [level] on 2022-02-25 and [level] on 2022-02-28, consolidated, then rose to a peak high of [level] on 2022-04-05 — roughly +32% from the 2/28 close (+42% from 2/25) over ~5-6 weeks, exactly the 'continue higher' path. |
| TSM TSM | 2026-07-02 | Bearish | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Down 7% on the day, flagged for high relative volume | Flagged 7/2 near the [level] area (7/1 close [level]; note the chart shows a gap around the call date). After a 7/6 bounce to [level], TSM trended net lower to [level] (7/17) and a [level] low (7/20) — roughly -8% to -11% from the flag — before rebounding to [level] by 7/23. Weakness followed through on balance, but not immediately. |
| UPST UPST | 2022-02-15 | Short | LOSS | May break recent daily lows ahead | Feb 15 close [level] (recent lows [level]). Instead of breaking lower, UPST spiked post-earnings to [level] on Feb 22 (+48%), a sharp adverse move against the short. It only fell below the Feb lows later in March. The near-term downside call failed; logged as a loss. |
| UPST UPST | 2022-03-01 | Short | WIN | Wants to form lower 40-day wave (make a lower cyclical low) | UPST [level] close on 2022-03-01; fell to [level] by late March, [level] in April, and [level] by late May 2022 (roughly -80%). A clean lower cyclical low formed well within the near-term window. |
| UVXY UVXY | 2022-02-20 | Long | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Will easily reach [level] resistance, then [level] | UVXY did rally after the call (VIX spiked on the late-Feb Ukraine invasion), peaking ~+43% above the 2022-02-20 entry around 2022-03-16, then fading. The split-invariant peak of ~+43% is far short of what the [level]-then-[level] target sequence would require, so [level] was not reached; [level] is unverifiable due to reverse-split scale distortion in the raw data. Direction (up) correct, magnitude/targets not met. |
| UVXY UVXY | 2026-06-13 | Bearish | WIN | Expecting a more negative UVXY this week | Prior close Fri Jun 12 = [level]. Week of Jun 15-[level] UVXY fell to [level] (Jun 15) and closed the Juneteenth-shortened week at [level] (Jun 18), roughly -9.5%. UVXY declined as called. |
| XOM XOM | 2022-03-02 | Long | WIN | Buy entry with stop below swing low | Close [level] on 3/2/2022. Rose steadily: [level] (3/11), [level] (3/25), [level] (4/15), [level] (5/20), peaking near [level] (6/3) — up ~14% in six weeks and ~27% by early June. One mid-March dip to a [level] close (3/15, ~-5%) but recovered; long thesis paid off strongly. |
| XRT XRT | 2022-02-28 | Long | PARTIAL | [level] area is good long-term value (bullish value zone) | XRT [level] on 2022-02-25. Rather than holding [level] as value, it fell through it and bottomed near [level] close on 2022-10-03 (about -27%), undercutting the stated value zone by ~20% before a later partial recovery. Data window (through mid-2023) does not show a clean sustained reclaim above [level], so the bullish value thesis is at best only partially/eventually vindicated and was underwater for most of 2022. |
| ZIM ZIM | 2026-07-07 | Bearish | LOSS | Top of the 20-day short setups; heavy, more room below | Call 7/7, ZIM [level]. Only a marginal dip to [level] (7/13), then rallied to [level] (7/23), +6.6% vs entry, closing higher. The 'more room below' did not materialize - it went the other way. Clean loss. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
How many market calls are on the public record?
112 published, graded calls across 67 instruments, 2022-02-14 to 2026-07-13. 9 instruments have enough history for a page of their own; the other 58 are on this one page in full.
Are the losing calls published too?
Yes — 26 outright losses across the whole record, in the same tables as everything else, in date order. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
What is left out?
Two things, both stated rather than quietly dropped. Calls that were never published to an audience: anything spoken in an internal or unverified working session is scored the same way but never appears here, because a call the public could not have followed is not public proof. And calls with no settled outcome: 20 ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result.
How is a call scored?
Against its own stated direction and timeframe, using public daily closes. Ungradeable calls are excluded from the denominator and withheld from the tables; the count of them is published so the set is not quietly trimmed.
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