The Master Record

112 published calls on 67 instruments, 2022-02-14 to 2026-07-13. All 112 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. Every call carries its own grade in the table below, including the ones that went against us. We do not summarise them into a single score here. That includes 26 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 20 calls on this record are not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so they are withheld from the pages below rather than published with a direction and no result. They are counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.

Instruments with their own record

9 instruments with 3 or more published calls. Every call dated when made, scored after, kept forever — losses included.

Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.

How these are graded

A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.

Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.