TLT — the permanent record
3 published calls on TLT, 2022-02-17 to 2026-07-04. All 3 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 2 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Read this before the table. This is 3 graded calls on one instrument, 2022-02-17 to 2026-07-04. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything. Nothing in this particular set graded LOSS — a property of how few calls are in it and how short the window is, not evidence of accuracy and not a claim about anything. Across the whole record there are 26 outright losses, published in the same tables as everything else. Past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised or implied.
Called under 2 names in the source record — TLT, Treasuries / Bonds (TLT) — merged here because they are the same read. The As called column shows the name used on the day.
Every call, in date order
| Date | As called | Dir | Timeframe | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-17 | TLT | Short | Long-term | WIN | Sustained downtrend; nine-month VTL broken | On 2022-02-17 TLT was [level]. It fell in a sustained downtrend through all of 2022, reaching a low of [level] around 2022-10-11 (~-32%) and closing the year [level] (~-27%). The sustained-downtrend thesis played out clearly over the long-term window. |
| 2022-03-10 | TLT | Down | Short-term trade | WIN | More downside to come | Entry [level] (Mar 10). TLT never traded meaningfully above entry (post-call high only [level] on Mar 11, +0.3%) and declined steadily — [level] (Apr 7), [level] (late Apr), [level] (May 6), to a [level] low on Jun 14 (~-19%). Clean directional win with negligible adverse excursion. |
| 2026-07-04 | Treasuries / Bonds (TLT) | Bearish | Next couple weeks | DIRECTION-CORRECT | If it breaks, next target well below current levels | TLT last closed [level] on 2026-07-02 (markets closed 7/3-7/4 holiday). Over the following two weeks it made steady lower lows: [level] (7/8), [level] (7/13), [level] (7/21), [level] (7/23) — about -2.8%. Bearish direction confirmed, though 'well below' is vague and the drop was orderly rather than dramatic. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
Is TLT a buy right now?
No page here answers that. We do not make recommendations and we do not publish a current opinion on a named security. This is the closed, dated record of every published call on TLT — read it and decide for yourself.
What is on this TLT record page?
3 graded calls on TLT between 2022-02-17 and 2026-07-04, each logged the day it was made and scored afterwards against public closes. The grades: 2 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.
How is the denominator worked out?
All 3 calls on this page are graded, so the denominator is the whole set. Ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are excluded from every ratio on this site AND withheld from the tables, because a named security with a direction and no settled outcome is not a retrospective. How many exist is stated on the page.
Why are there no prices in the record?
The record is stated in percentages, never in dollar amounts. Absolute price levels are redacted and shown as [level]; the percentage move, the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded.
Get the Cycle Pass — from $297