Bitcoin (BTC) — the permanent record
8 published calls on Bitcoin (BTC), 2022-02-18 to 2022-03-14. All 8 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 3 WIN, 3 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 1 LOSS. That includes 1 outright loss, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 1 call on this record is not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so it is withheld from this page rather than published with a direction and no result. It is counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Read this before the table. This is 8 graded calls on one instrument, 2022-02-18 to 2022-03-14. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything. Across the whole record there are 26 outright losses, published in the same tables as everything else. Past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised or implied.
Called under 3 names in the source record — BTC/USD, Bitcoin (BTCUSD / BTC-USD), Bitcoin (BTCUSD) — merged here because they are the same read. The As called column shows the name used on the day.
Every call, in date order
| Date | As called | Dir | Timeframe | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-18 | BTC/USD | Short | Near-term | WIN | Has to come down to [level] (the 40-day FLD) | On 2022-02-18 BTC closed [level]. Within a week it declined through the [level] target, reaching a low of [level] on 2022-02-24 — the projected pullback to the 40-day FLD level was met and exceeded to the downside. |
| 2022-02-21 | BTC/USD | Short | Short-term | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Looking for a breakdown of the lows if BTC breaks [level] | On 2022-02-21 BTC closed [level]. It broke below [level] and fell to a low of [level] on 2022-02-24, confirming the downside trigger. However it held ABOVE the January-2022 major low ([level]) and then reversed sharply higher to [level] by ~2022-03-28. So the [level]k break and short-term lower low happened, but the fuller 'breakdown of the lows' did not complete before a strong rally. |
| 2022-02-27 | BTC/USD | Short (rally-then-fall roadmap) | Days/weeks | WIN | Sell stop below [level]; possible rally to [level] then down to the [level]s | BTC [level] on 2022-02-27. It rallied to a peak of [level] on 2022-03-28 (hit/overshot the [level] target), then rolled over, broke decisively below [level] (May 2022), and cascaded into the [level]s — low of [level] on 2022-06-18. Both waypoints of the roadmap verified; caveat: the [level]s target took ~4 months, not the stated 'days/weeks.' |
| 2022-03-02 | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Down | Short-term trade (10-day cycle) | WIN | Additional short opportunities into the upcoming 10-day trough | BTC [level] on 3/2/2022; it declined into a mid-March trough with the lowest close [level] on 3/14/2022 (~-14%). The 'upcoming 10-day trough' came in materially lower exactly as called, before BTC recovered toward [level]k in early April. Defined short-horizon short worked. |
| 2022-03-03 | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Down | Short-term trade (80-day cycle) | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Short into the 80-day cycle lows | BTC [level] on 3/3/2022. Interim rally to [level] (4/2/2022, ~+10% against a fresh short), then a collapse to the 80-day-window low [level] (5/29/2022), roughly -32% from entry. The cycle low came in far lower as called and direction (down) is validated, but only after surviving a moderate adverse excursion — hence DIRECTION-CORRECT rather than a clean WIN. |
| 2022-03-05 | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Down | Short-term trade | THEME-CORRECT | End-of-month bear move coming | BTC [level] on 3/5/22 first rallied ~+19% to [level] by ~3/28/22, then closed 3/31 at [level] — only ~-2% net vs entry (a sharp last-3-days-of-month drop, but a big adverse rally first). The larger bear leg came later: down to [level]k (April) and [level]k (June 2022). Broader bearish theme correct; the specific 'end of month' short-term timing was off. |
| 2022-03-14 | Bitcoin (BTCUSD / BTC-USD) | Down | Short-term trade | DIRECTION-CORRECT | More than likely the final stop before the journey below [level] | BTC was [level] around 2022-03-14. Rather than being the 'final stop,' it first rallied ~20% to [level]k over the following weeks, then broke down: below [level]k by mid-May 2022 and to [level]k by late June. The below-[level] direction/target was ultimately hit decisively, but the 'final stop / imminent' premise failed near-term with a ~20% adverse rally first — not a clean short-term trade. |
| 2022-03-14 | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Down | Short-term trade (defined target/stop) | LOSS | Short trade targeting [level] with stop at [level] | Entry [level] (Mar 14 close). After entry BTC ROSE, hitting [level] (late Mar) and [level] (Apr high) — blowing through the [level] stop within ~2 weeks. The [level] target was only reached later, in May 2022 (May low [level]) and June ([level]), well after the stop would have triggered. Stop hit before target = losing trade on its own terms. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
Is Bitcoin (BTC) a buy right now?
No page here answers that. We do not make recommendations and we do not publish a current opinion on a named security. This is the closed, dated record of every published call on Bitcoin (BTC) — read it and decide for yourself.
What is on this Bitcoin (BTC) record page?
8 graded calls on Bitcoin (BTC) between 2022-02-18 and 2022-03-14, each logged the day it was made and scored afterwards against public closes. The grades: 3 WIN, 3 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 1 LOSS. That includes 1 outright loss, sitting in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. 1 further call on Bitcoin (BTC) could not be graded and is withheld rather than published without an outcome. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.
How is the denominator worked out?
All 8 calls on this page are graded, so the denominator is the whole set. Ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are excluded from every ratio on this site AND withheld from the tables, because a named security with a direction and no settled outcome is not a retrospective. How many exist is stated on the page.
Why are there no prices in the record?
The record is stated in percentages, never in dollar amounts. Absolute price levels are redacted and shown as [level]; the percentage move, the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded.
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