RIVN — the permanent record
5 published calls on RIVN, 2022-03-01 to 2026-07-10. All 5 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 1 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 2 LOSS. That includes 2 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Read this before the table. This is 5 graded calls on one instrument, 2022-03-01 to 2026-07-10. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything. Across the whole record there are 26 outright losses, published in the same tables as everything else. Past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised or implied.
Called under 2 names in the source record — RIVN, RIVN (Rivian) — merged here because they are the same read. The As called column shows the name used on the day.
Every call, in date order
| Date | As called | Dir | Timeframe | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-01 | RIVN | Short | Near-term | WIN | Losing 40-day wave support, downside continuation | Close [level] on 3/1/2022 (local high). Fell continuously: [level] (3/8), [level] (3/15), [level] (3/22), [level] (3/29), [level] (4/5), reaching [level] (5/10) — about -30% within a month and ~-47% by mid-May. Downside continuation confirmed. |
| 2022-03-04 | RIVN (Rivian) | Down | Theme | THEME-CORRECT | Trade still unhealthy; looks better off dead (bearish continuation) | RIVN [level] on 3/4/22 fell ~-62% to a [level] low by mid-May 2022 ([level] by late June). Bearish continuation strongly confirmed; no price target was given, so graded as a directional/theme call. |
| 2026-07-09 | RIVN (Rivian) | Bullish (long) | Same-day / short swing (exact unstated) | LOSS | Long: opened above both 20-day and 40-day FLD and ran; 'brand name you have to have ready to go on a day like this.' | Yahoo daily: Jul 9 close [level] (entry). Never regained it: [level] Jul 10, [level] Jul 13, low [level] Jul 16, [level] Jul 17 (-3.7%), [level] Jul 20. Every post-call close below entry. |
| 2026-07-10 | RIVN | Bullish | Near-term | LOSS | Above both 20-day and 40-day FLD and kept going (higher) | RIVN 2026-07-10 opened [level] and closed [level] — a DOWN day (-5% from the open), directly contradicting 'kept going.' It then drifted lower: [level] (07-13), [level] (07-16), to [level] on 07-23 — net ~-5% below the 07-10 close. The bullish thesis was not supported by price. |
| 2026-07-10 | RIVN | Bullish | Intraday/session | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Above both 20-day and 40-day FLD and moving higher | On the referenced 7/9 session RIVN closed [level], up +8.8% from [level] (7/8) — a strong up day consistent with the bullish intraday read. But no follow-through: it faded to [level] (7/10) and chopped down to [level] by 7/22, roughly flat-to-lower than the 7/9 close. Correct for the session only. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
Is RIVN a buy right now?
No page here answers that. We do not make recommendations and we do not publish a current opinion on a named security. This is the closed, dated record of every published call on RIVN — read it and decide for yourself.
What is on this RIVN record page?
5 graded calls on RIVN between 2022-03-01 and 2026-07-10, each logged the day it was made and scored afterwards against public closes. The grades: 1 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 2 LOSS. That includes 2 outright losses, sitting in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.
How is the denominator worked out?
All 5 calls on this page are graded, so the denominator is the whole set. Ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are excluded from every ratio on this site AND withheld from the tables, because a named security with a direction and no settled outcome is not a retrospective. How many exist is stated on the page.
Why are there no prices in the record?
The record is stated in percentages, never in dollar amounts. Absolute price levels are redacted and shown as [level]; the percentage move, the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded.
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