S&P 500 — the permanent record
10 published calls on S&P 500, 2022-02-14 to 2026-07-10. All 10 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 2 WIN, 3 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 4 LOSS. That includes 4 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 4 calls on this record are not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so they are withheld from this page rather than published with a direction and no result. They are counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Read this before the table. This is 10 graded calls on one instrument, 2022-02-14 to 2026-07-10. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything. Across the whole record there are 26 outright losses, published in the same tables as everything else. Past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised or implied.
Called under 8 names in the source record — ES (S&P 500 E-mini), ES / S&P 500 futures (indices), S&P 500 (indices), SPX / indices, SPY, SPY (S&P 500), SPY / S&P 500, US Equities (SPY proxy) — merged here because they are the same read. The As called column shows the name used on the day.
Every call, in date order
| Date | As called | Dir | Timeframe | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-14 | SPY | Short | Multi-day | WIN | End of 80-day cycle approaching (60% convinced) — expecting a top/decline | SPY closed [level] on 2022-02-14, ticked up to [level] on 2022-02-15 (the cycle top, +1.5% one day), then declined: [level] (02-16), [level] (02-17), [level] (02-28), into the [level] area by late Feb / early March 2022 — roughly -10% from the 02-15 high. The 80-day cycle top and multi-week decline materialized. |
| 2022-02-23 | SPY | Short | — | DIRECTION-CORRECT | No bottom in sight; 40-week FLD provides support below | SPY [level] on 2022-02-23. A counter-rally lifted it to [level] by late March 2022, then the bear resumed and SPY bottomed at [level] on 2022-10-10 (-18% from the call). 'No bottom in sight' held over 2022 (durable low not until October), but a significant ~6-week counter-rally came first. |
| 2022-02-28 | US Equities (SPY proxy) | Short | Long-term (to 2024) | LOSS | Extended sell-off, 'SELLING UNTIL 2024 ELECTIONS' | SPY [level] on 2022-02-28. The market bottomed on 2022-10-10 at [level] (-19%) — roughly 8 months later, NOT 2024 — then rallied to [level] by the Nov 2024 election (+~38% above the call level). The 2022 selloff was real, but the defining multi-year thesis ('selling until 2024 elections') was decisively falsified. |
| 2022-03-03 | SPY (S&P 500) | Down | Short-term trade | LOSS | Cautious/neutral; possible short at [level] or below [level] on volume | SPY closed [level] on 3/3/2022. It briefly dipped to a 3/7 low [level] (the 'below [level]' leg gave a fleeting ~2-3%), then reversed sharply UP: [level] first tagged ~3/18-[level] (high [level] on 3/21) and [level] by 4/7 — about +7% to +10% off the early-March low. The bearish/short bias failed within the trade window; a 'short at [level]' would have been ~4-5% underwater. Conservative read: LOSS. |
| 2022-03-04 | SPY (S&P 500) | Up | Short-term trade | WIN | Last chance longs; 20-week wave with a 40-day peak expected | SPY [level] on 3/4/22 rallied ~+5.7% to a peak of [level] on 3/28/22 (~24 days, inside the ~40-day window), then reversed sharply to [level] by mid-May 2022. The 'last chance long' caught a real, tradeable rally to a peak and the top that followed — thesis played out. |
| 2026-06-30 | SPY / S&P 500 | Neutral | Current | THEME-CORRECT | Stocks broke support but averages maintain bull trend in a new 20-day trough | SPY closed [level] on 6/30. The prior trough of [level] (6/26) held — no lower low — and SPY rallied back to [level] (7/10) and [level] (7/15), reclaiming the mid-June range, before fading to [level] (7/23), net -1.1% from the call. The 'trough-in / bull trend intact' theme held near-term, though the market has since stalled. Only ~3 weeks aged. |
| 2026-07-03 | ES (S&P 500 E-mini) | Neutral | Next week | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Potential 10-day cycle bounce could set up next week | ES 7/3 close [level]. The following week a bounce did materialize as flagged: 7/6 [level] rising to 7/10 [level] (+1.2%). The move was real but the call was hedged/tentative ('potential...could set up'), and ES later rolled back over to [level] by 7/23. |
| 2026-07-09 | ES / S&P 500 futures (indices) | Bullish | Into next 40-day peak; invalidation = close below 07-09 session low ([level]) | LOSS | Rising into a 40-day peak, confirmed today; invalidation = today's session low. | 07-09 session low was [level] (verified). After a one-day pop to [level] (07-10), SPX closed [level] (07-17) and [level] (07-20), both below [level] → invalidation triggered, bullish thesis broken. |
| 2026-07-09 | SPX / indices | Bearish | 80-day cycle peak window (unstated exact date) | DIRECTION-CORRECT | 80-day cycle peaking now; long-term buyers holding it up 'definitely not going to work out.' | From the 07-09 close [level], SPX made only a marginal higher high ([level] on 07-10 / [level] on 07-15, +0.4%) before rolling over to [level] (07-17) and [level] (07-20), net below the call level — peak-and-rollover confirmed, though the exact top came ~1 session / 32 pts later than 'now.' |
| 2026-07-10 | S&P 500 (indices) | Bullish (new peak forming) | New peak ~2026-07-22 (±) | LOSS | Rejected off 20-day FLD 07-08; 10-day trough in, new peak forming ~12 days out (~07-22). | Predicted a new higher peak by ~07-22; instead SPX peaked 07-10 at [level], fell to a [level] trough (07-20), and closed [level] on 07-22 — no new peak, market net lower at the stated horizon. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
Is S&P 500 a buy right now?
No page here answers that. We do not make recommendations and we do not publish a current opinion on a named security. This is the closed, dated record of every published call on S&P 500 — read it and decide for yourself.
What is on this S&P 500 record page?
10 graded calls on S&P 500 between 2022-02-14 and 2026-07-10, each logged the day it was made and scored afterwards against public closes. The grades: 2 WIN, 3 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 4 LOSS. That includes 4 outright losses, sitting in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. 4 further calls on S&P 500 could not be graded and are withheld rather than published without an outcome. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.
How is the denominator worked out?
All 10 calls on this page are graded, so the denominator is the whole set. Ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are excluded from every ratio on this site AND withheld from the tables, because a named security with a direction and no settled outcome is not a retrospective. How many exist is stated on the page.
Why are there no prices in the record?
The record is stated in percentages, never in dollar amounts. Absolute price levels are redacted and shown as [level]; the percentage move, the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded.
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