Crude oil — the permanent record
6 published calls on Crude oil, 2022-03-01 to 2026-07-09. All 6 are graded against public closes — that is the denominator, and it is the whole set. The grades: 1 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 3 LOSS. That includes 3 outright losses, in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. A further 1 call on this record is not gradeable — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time. A call with no settled outcome is not a retrospective, so it is withheld from this page rather than published with a direction and no result. It is counted here so the set you are reading is not quietly trimmed. Every row was dated when it was made and checked against public closes after.
Read this before the table. This is 6 graded calls on one instrument, 2022-03-01 to 2026-07-09. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything. Across the whole record there are 26 outright losses, published in the same tables as everything else. Past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised or implied.
Called under 5 names in the source record — Crude Oil (/CL / CL=F), Crude Oil (/CL), Crude oil (commodities), Oil (CL=F), Oil (WTI crude) — merged here because they are the same read. The As called column shows the name used on the day.
Every call, in date order
| Date | As called | Dir | Timeframe | Grade | What was said | What price actually did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-01 | Oil (WTI crude) | Long | Medium-term | LOSS | Move toward [level] per barrel ('[level] isn't too far away') | WTI was roughly [level] on 2022-03-01. It spiked only to [level] around 2022-03-07/08, never approached [level], then reversed and ended 2022 near [level] (below the call price). The [level] target was missed by a wide margin; the medium-term move was a decline, not the projected surge. |
| 2022-03-06 | Crude Oil (/CL) | Up | Short-term trade | DIRECTION-CORRECT | Long trade until [level] | /CL [level] on 3/6-3/7/22. Rose to a peak of only [level] (mid-March / mid-May 2022, ~+[level]-18%) then fell back to [level] by late June 2022. Never came within ~48% of the [level] target — the headline target was never remotely approached, though the immediate short-term direction (up) was briefly correct. |
| 2022-03-10 | Crude Oil (/CL) | Range (above [level]) | Theme | THEME-CORRECT | Lots of support for oil staying above [level] | Entry [level] (Mar 10). Oil PIERCED [level] to the downside soon after — [level] on Mar 14 and [level] on Apr 4 — so the literal '[level] support' broke in the near term. But the broader triple-digit-oil theme held: oil rallied back and spent most of Apr-Jun above [level], peaking [level] (May-Jun close [level]). Macro theme broadly correct; the specific support level was breached first. |
| 2022-03-14 | Crude Oil (/CL / CL=F) | Down | Short-term trade | LOSS | Oil walking down into its 40-day wave low; potential move to the low [level]s | WTI closed [level] on 2022-03-14. It dipped only to [level] on 2022-03-21, then rebounded and traded [level] through April 2022, never reaching the low [level]s. Price moved up, opposite the 'walking down' thesis, and the low-[level]s target was never hit. |
| 2026-06-13 | Oil (CL=F) | Bearish | Soon after Jun 13, 2026 (near-term weeks) | WIN | New shorts in oil to destabilize market soon | CL=F [level] on Jun 12 fell to [level] by Jul 6 (roughly -19%) over the weeks following the call, then fully reversed and rallied back above [level] by Jul 23. Directionally correct within the near-term 'soon' window; must disclose the later full round-trip to new highs. |
| 2026-07-09 | Crude oil (commodities) | Bearish/observation | Same-day recap | LOSS | Bearish; fell 3.5% today; war headlines back in play. Same-day recap. | Yahoo chart API (CL=F daily closes): crude was a down day on Jul 9 ([level] on Jul 8 -> [level] on Jul 9, about -2% close-to-close, near the cited ~3.5%), so the same-day observation was directionally accurate. But any bearish forward lean was contradicted decisively: crude then RALLIED to [level] by Jul 23, roughly +28.5% off the Jul 9 close (consistent with the 'war headlines back in play' catalyst the note itself flagged). Graded conservatively (less-favorable read) as a LOSS on the bearish stance. |
Every row here is dated and historical, and the What was said column quotes the claim as it was made at the time — it is not a view being put forward now. Every row here is resolved: calls graded UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY or TOO-RECENT are ones we could not score, and they are withheld rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no result. How many are withheld is stated above. Nothing on this page is a current opinion on any security and nothing here is a recommendation. Examples are historical; past results do not indicate future results, and no outcome is promised.
How these are graded
A call is scored against its own stated direction and timeframe, using the instrument’s actual price action inside that window — daily closes from public price data, never our own numbers. WIN = direction and the move both landed. DIRECTION-CORRECT / THEME-CORRECT = right direction, but the target was missed, the timing was off, or a real drawdown came first. PARTIAL = mixed; the thesis half-worked or round-tripped. LOSS = price went the other way inside the window. UNCLEAR, TOO-EARLY and TOO-RECENT are ungradeable: they sit outside the denominator, and they are withheld from these pages entirely rather than printed as a named security with a direction and no settled outcome. How many exist is stated on the page they would have appeared on, so the set is not quietly trimmed. Where the framing was genuinely ambiguous it is graded to the less favourable reading, on purpose. The full scoring method.
Two things about how this reads. Absolute price levels are withheld and shown as [level] — this record is stated in percentages, which is the part that means anything; the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded. And within its scope it is shown whole: every published, gradeable call is here, in date order, losses in line with the rest rather than in a footnote. A record you can only read when it flatters us is not a record.
Questions traders ask
Is Crude oil a buy right now?
No page here answers that. We do not make recommendations and we do not publish a current opinion on a named security. This is the closed, dated record of every published call on Crude oil — read it and decide for yourself.
What is on this Crude oil record page?
6 graded calls on Crude oil between 2022-03-01 and 2026-07-09, each logged the day it was made and scored afterwards against public closes. The grades: 1 WIN, 1 DIRECTION-CORRECT, 1 THEME-CORRECT, 3 LOSS. That includes 3 outright losses, sitting in the table with everything else rather than in a footnote. 1 further call on Crude oil could not be graded and is withheld rather than published without an outcome. A set this size is a sample, not a track record, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.
How is the denominator worked out?
All 6 calls on this page are graded, so the denominator is the whole set. Ungradeable calls — no independent reference, a trigger that never fired, or too little elapsed time — are excluded from every ratio on this site AND withheld from the tables, because a named security with a direction and no settled outcome is not a retrospective. How many exist is stated on the page.
Why are there no prices in the record?
The record is stated in percentages, never in dollar amounts. Absolute price levels are redacted and shown as [level]; the percentage move, the dates, the direction and the outcome are exactly as recorded.
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