Track Record

Derek's public scoreboard — signals, levels, the scan

Every call Derek makes on video is logged here — dated, timestamped, and scored. Hits and misses both. Nothing edited after the fact.
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Scored
13
Hits
6
Misses
7
Open
5
Win Rate
46%
10 observation-only entries logged separately — not counted in the win rate.
OPEN
15
2026-07-13SECTORSSTATED CALLOPEN

“These are the ones that went through the FLD, overnight, or within a day, that have not completed their projection... it's likely that the trend will continue here, in the chosen instrument here, especially if it's breaking out inside of an early 40-day cycle, trough coming now.”

Horizon: early 40-day cycle trough window
2026-07-13SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“It's still below the 20-day FLD, so Fubo is still in bear territory. I don't see anything until 2.75 or $5.”

Horizon: unstated — a large gap from the price at the time, longer-horizon level
2026-07-13SECTORSOBSERVATIONOPEN

“The Dow has made a pretty big reaction to our new industrial future capacity, future manufacturing. / Profits from a lot of wars, right? A lot of these companies have pretty big profits from selling weapons and stuff like that. A lot of them should follow the materials.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-13SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“CarMax was a good one. Good formation on the chart, but if you're not looking inside the chart in the very late period of the 80-day cycle, like we are, it's gonna drop, maybe.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-13SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“AMWL looks like a nice breakout from today. If you were watching that on today, when you're open, and you've seen volume, you'd probably be like, yeah, I have to go try AMWL over $10. / A lot of these aren't going to qualify unless you understand the market. It needs to be very good. Top 10%, or top 5% setup, okay? Because we're going counter-trend here.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-13PROCESSSTATED CALLOPEN

“This catches the FLD crosses from yesterday that reverse downwards. Below the open... if the open is greater than the FLD yesterday, but then it reverses down today. That's a signal.”

Horizon: standing method
2026-07-13SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“National Grid made a pretty sloppy landing, whatever it's done. Not looking too good, National Grid. NGG.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-10PROCESSSTATED CALLOPEN

“When the regime has changed, you don't want to be taking too many positive trades. You want to stay with shorts. Unless it's a big deal, the move... if it's a bigger company that's had something happen to it, and it shows up on the scan, then it's a stock in play. / Stocks in play don't stop for anything.”

Horizon: standing method
2026-07-10PROCESSSTATED CALLOPEN

“We want to make sure that the stock ends in a positive day. If it's not ending in a positive day, it's likely that it's not going to continue.”

Horizon: standing method
2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“Some of these are on low volume, so you would stay away from these unless it's approved through the filtering process. In this case it's a high relative volume associated with the 50 period... here's one that went through: Shake Shack.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“JP Morgan actually went through, and then it fell through yesterday and reversed higher, so that was a trap... they were trapping sellers here... JP Morgan and American Express pretty much do whatever they want anyways, but when they're strong like this, the market's generally moving higher.”

Horizon: unstated
2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“Applied Materials went through its 40-day FLD and met resistance. You'd have to watch out for that... I don't usually take this where the FLD is above price and the 40-day gets hit first. They usually don't do that... if you do it, be careful.”

Horizon: watch only
2026-07-09INDICESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“Today was a bounce-back day where there was a little bit of momentum to the upside... our bullish scan here does show that the majority of them did move higher... a relatively mixed market because of that pressure that is still being exerted up.”

Horizon: same-day recap
2026-07-09COMMODITIESOBSERVATIONOPEN

“(Emeka) Bearish for crude oil, as crude oil fell by 3.5% today.”

Horizon: same-day recap
2026-07-09MACROSTATED CALLOPEN

“We already know that there's already inflation, and they're gonna raise rates, and we're already bearish. Everybody knows the macro.”

Horizon: standing regime view
SCORED
13
2026-07-13SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLHIT

“If you see CrowdStrike break above the 195 to 199, you can expect probably 200 or more, or a breakout above 210. On any type of market rally — and we're not gonna predict.”

Horizon: level-triggered, no date given

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. Call made the evening of 07-13 with CRWD at 187.91. The next session, 07-14, it printed a 211.00 high and closed 210.73 — clearing the 195-199 zone and holding a close above the 210 level. Fast, clean resolution.

2026-07-13INDICESSTATED CALLHIT

“The 80-day cycle's rolling over, so what you want to do is you want to make sure you're trading stocks that have already moved to... at least two points. / I already know that the 80-day cycle is already probably topping. And by that, it's also the top of the 20-week cycle, probably. It's just bouncing around the top here.”

Horizon: 80-day / 20-week cycle top window, live at the time

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-31. SPX made one more marginal higher push after the call (7543.59 on 07-14, 7572.40 on 07-15) then rolled over hard: 7313.92 low / 7316.15 close on 07-29, down 2.7% from the call close and 6.6% off the interim 07-15 high. NDX confirmed a genuine correction (29264.10 on 07-13 to 27176.03 low on 07-29, down 7.1%). The topping call held.

2026-07-10SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLHIT

“Prepare ARWR for review tonight to make sure you can see how a sector really does affect things. / Beam Therapeutics, B-E-A-M... volume takes over, you have an FLD, the regime change, and our scan picks it up. / CRISPR Therapeutics is another one, CRSP. That was a very good opportunity.”

Horizon: end of day, short side into the failing regime

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. From the 07-10 close through 07-17: ARWR -2.8% (76.40 to 74.30), BEAM -15.8% (32.68 to 27.53), CRSP -10.4% (53.35 to 47.78). All three worked, two of them hard. QCOM was mentioned in the same breath and immediately walked back on air, so it was excluded from scoring rather than counted.

2026-07-10INDICESSTATED CALLHIT

“Today, folks, we have a market breaking out of the triangle... a little bit back and forth, until that 80-day cycle rolls over in a couple more weeks. / Failing cycle, or failing regime here, and larger time frame players are rolling over. / When the regime has changed, you don't want to be taking too many positive trades. You want to stay with shorts. Unless it's a big deal, the move.”

Horizon: 80-day cycle roll-over about 2 weeks out (late July)

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-31. The back-and-forth held through the 07-21/07-22 chop (SPX 7440-7525), then the rollover hit close to schedule: breakdown from 07-23 (7408.30, down 1.2%) through a 07-29 low of 7313.92, with SPX down 3.4% in that single session and NDX entering a confirmed correction the same week, chip-led. Called the move roughly two weeks ahead, as stated.

2026-07-10INDICESSTATED CALLMISS

“(Emeka) The 10-day trough has been formed... it's going to form a new peak. / There was a rejection two days ago, July 8th, from the 20-day FLD for S&P. / The new peak is going to form in the next 12 days or thereabouts.”

Horizon: rejection dated 2026-07-08; new peak around 2026-07-22

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-31. Horizon reached and passed. No new peak ever printed: SPX's highest close between the call and 07-22 stayed at or below the 07-10/07-15 levels (7575.39 / 7572.40), and by the 07-22 close it was 7498.96 — a lower high, not a new one. The market then broke down hard through 07-29 (7313.92 low). The trough-to-new-peak read did not play out.

2026-07-10SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLMISS

“Hard to find really good issues, except for GM. GM was popular today across the FLD. Perfect position. Crossed our filter, picked it up with the perfect position. That's the correct nomenclature. Our scan picked it up correctly.”

Horizon: end of day / short swing

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. GM went 77.85 at the 07-10 close to 76.07 by 07-17, down 2.3%. (CRCL was named then walked back in the same segment and was not scored.)

2026-07-10SECTORSSTATED CALLHIT

“Generally bearish day across biotech and Applied Therapeutics, neuroscience, applied science. Big time in healthcare today, so anything that has to do with healthcare on higher volume — be prepared to take any sector that's rolling over for the day. / That's what happens when volume takes over, and you have an FLD, and the regime change, and our scan picks it up. Usually, every time.”

Horizon: same-day and into the regime roll-over

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. The biotech complex kept falling all week — an ARWR/BEAM/CRSP basket averaged about -9.7% from the 07-10 close through 07-17. The regime-change flag held.

2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLMISS

“AMD did give the signal today. It opened above the 20-day and 40-day FLD right here, signaling a reason to go long there... the cyclotechnical data does support a long trade here because it's AMD. The sector supports it. The market is positive.”

Horizon: end of day / swing (no exact horizon stated)

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. Worked on day one (546.72 to 557.89, up 2.0% on 07-10) then gave it all back and more, reaching 495.76 by 07-17 — down 9.3% from the call.

2026-07-09INDICESSTATED CALLMISS

“(Emeka) The ES is up into the 40-day peak, and today confirmed it... the 20-day troughs formed... early June 80-day upswing... rising into the next 40-day peak. Today the market ate an Iran headline, flushed, and bought back the dip to the close. S&P at negative 0.3%... The invalidation is clean: today's session low. Closed below it and the phasing is wrong.”

Horizon: into the next 40-day peak; invalidation live daily (a close below the 2026-07-09 session low)

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. SPX cash closed 7457.69 on 07-17, below the 07-09 session low of 7481.73 by 24 points — the stated invalidation triggered. Caveat stated plainly: this was scored on SPX cash as a proxy because the exact ES futures session low was never captured at the time. The 24-point cash breach makes an ES invalidation very likely but not certain.

2026-07-09INDICESSTATED CALLHIT

“It's now probably peaking, that 80-day cycle. This is the 80-day cycle pressure. Long-term buyers that are still trying to hold up the market, even though it's definitely not going to work out for them.”

Horizon: 80-day cycle peak window (no exact date stated)

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. SPX made a marginal higher peak (7575.39 on 07-10, 7572.40 on 07-15) then rolled to 7457.69 by 07-17, below the 7543.64 call level. A peak formed within days and the late-cycle buyers were underwater a week later.

2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLMISS

“Rivian went through today. It started above both the 20 and 40-day FLD here this morning and proceeded to move higher. Rivian is a brand name that you have to have ready to go on a day like this.”

Horizon: same day / short swing (no exact horizon stated)

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. Fell on day one and never recovered: 18.12 to 17.45 by 07-17, down 3.7%.

2026-07-09INDICESSTATED CALLMISS

“If it's a de-interaction coming up, and it's been weak on S&P, what's gonna happen to our bear scans tomorrow and the next day... and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday? They're gonna turn completely red. Everything's gonna shit the bed.”

Horizon: 2026-07-10 through about 2026-07-15

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. The stated window (07-10 through Wednesday 07-15) closed green — SPX went 7575.39 to 7572.40 across it. The roll-over did come, but on 07-16 and 07-17 (SPX to 7533.77 then 7457.69), one to two sessions after the window closed. Right idea, early on timing.

2026-07-09SINGLE-NAMESSTATED CALLMISS

“Costco, where today it fell through the previous day and dropped pretty hard... basically you're gonna search for the bottom here... take it to the end of the day when it does that. (Said on air as not a recommendation.)”

Horizon: end of day

Outcome: Checked 2026-07-18. COST did the opposite of breaking down further — it bottomed near the call and bounced 3.1% (912.97 to 940.87 by 07-17). Worth noting honestly: the second half of the call (search for the bottom, take it to end of day) reads as a bottom-fishing long, which would have won. It was scored a miss on the dominant bearish-continuation framing, and the ambiguity is flagged for a cleaner direction tag next time.

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Educational market analysis only — not investment advice, not a recommendation. Track record is Derek's own published calls, scored against public price data.